Estimates: Lies and Guesses?

Terry Bunio has already written a blog post on this Are #Estimates Lies? #NoEstimates. But I like to give my point of view on this topic as well.

To make a long story (blog post) short: "Estimates are not lies and guesses". There, you can stop reading here if you like :-)

Still here? I'm glad you would like to read more on my thoughts on this :-)

I hear that these statements are something that the #NoEstimates "community" claims to say or hold true. I haven't actually heard so much about it, but if it's true I would like (as a person thinking that the ideas behind #NoEstimates are good) to reject these statements - if so. But... there is a grain of "truth" in there... There is a reason why someone would call them "lies" or "guesses". Let me dwell on it.

Estimates are not lies or guesses - in the unicorn world! :-)

If you look at the pure definition of the word "estimate" (Merriam-Webster) you can see that it's not about guessing or lying. In the the definition you see words like "judge", "tentatively", "roughly", "approximate", "general".

But is this really the only usage of it, in the world of software development? Rhetoric. No.

And this is what #NoEstimates are trying to address. And this is where I think that #BetterEstimates and #NoEstimates share the same "interest". Maybe, in the end, we share the same solution to the problem: Communication! And in "communication" I put in words like "honesty", "transparency", "forthrightly" etc. Things that make communication meaningful and without "smell". Ok, maybe you should never be 100% honest etc? There might be situations. But you get it, nothing is ever 100% "true" or "false".

How does #NoEstimates fit?

In my opinion, I think it fits as a "topic" in this discussion about "dysfunctions" or "smell" associated with estimates. I see the hashtag as a "prefix" or an "abbreviation". I don't seem to get much throughput there, maybe I'm seeing things wrong? What do I know... But it's still my opinion, and I hold myself the right to change it later on, if someone points me at better :-)

But let me explain a bit.

Guesses

Sometimes I actually have no idea on how long time I think it's going to take when asked "How long..?" or "When..?". Usually it's because it's too vague or it feels too "big" to give a credible judgement - or anything else. 

The most honest thing is then to say that: "I have no idea" (or similar) (and when I do, we usually stop discussing estimates).  But when we're doing planning poker, or something else, it might not be easy to say that. Or when faced with some types of customers (you know which ones I'm talking about... :-) ). There's then a risk/chance that you do something that is more comparable with a "guess". Sometimes maybe the planning poker session is "forced" with: "We don't have time to discuss the details here, we must come up with a figure tomorrow" - i.e. "forced" to guess. 

Then I think #NoEstimates fits as #NoneOfThoseEstimates.

Sure, it's "bad management" or DDSTOP. But it fits the conversation, in my opinion. Like: "STOP!" or "NO!" (#No!Estimates?).

Lies

Sometimes, when I estimate, that estimation magically turns into a deadline. I.e. there is no "real" deadline (like market window, synchronization with other things etc), the estimate becomes the deadline. As in "We think we can pull this off in X sprints/iterations." and looking at the calendar that will occur at December 6. And the date is communicated up to the CEO (or whatever).

And in other times, estimates are "gamed". Like "Really that much!?" or "You have to cut that!". Usually in some "bidding" context. But I have actually heard customers say that directly faced with an estimate (and there are other reasons, than the estimates, why they say that).
And in other times, estimates are used because someone "above" needs a number to pass up the chain.
Etc...

In these scenarios you could actually call the estimates more like "lies" than "judgements".

Sure, again it's "bad management", "bad communication" or DDSTOP. But it fits the conversation. Again: #NoneOfThoseEstimates or #No!Estimates.

TL;DR

There are lots of other dysfunctions associated with estimates. All fits the #NoEstimates hashtag. Does it then mean: "Stop all estimations!"? Of course not.

And #NoEstimates also speaks of some "paradigm shift" on how both business and IT approaches software and how it is looked upon. But that's another topic :-)

But, #NoEstimates are centered round the fact that estimates are good if they are valid and used for the correct reason. No one thinks otherwise.